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This year’s Academy Awards, which airs Sunday, March 7 at 8 p.m., is supposed to be shorter than in recent years, but will anyone be watching?

In a word, yes. Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin are hosting, and box office titan “Avatar” has nine nominations, meaning fans of the $706 million-grossing film are likely to tune in. But will it win the big prize? Read on to find out who should win, and who will win, the major categories.

For Best Director, I did not see a more tense nor harrowing movie this year than “The Hurt Locker,” and a victory for Kathryn Bigelow would make her the first woman in history to win this award (only four have been nominated). In Bigelow’s way is her ex-husband James Cameron, whose “Avatar” is visually superior, but keep in mind there’s more to directing than visual splendor, and this will be where Cameron falls short. Also nominated are Quentin Tarantino for “Inglourious Basterds,” Jason Reitman for “Up In The Air,” and Lee Daniels for “Precious.” Bigelow should win, and will win.

One of the tightest races is Best Actress, as it pits Meryl Streep’s pinpoint interpretation of Julia Child in “Julie & Julia” against Sandra Bullock’s sassy southern dame in “The Blind Side.” Bullock’s performance in this simple, sweet story is the highlight of her career. But Streep, who’s now been nominated 16 times, hasn’t won an Oscar since 1982, and she’s due. Also nominated are Helen Mirren for “The Last Station,” Gabourey Sidibe for “Precious” and Carey Mulligan for “An Education.” Bullock should win, but Streep will win.

For Best Actor, Jeff Bridges earned his fifth nomination for “Crazy Heart,” in which he plays a burnt out country singer who starts a relationship with a young journalist. It always helps older actors when they do something distinctly different, as Bridges does here as a singer. His biggest competition is Jeremy Renner from “The Hurt Locker,” whose contained craziness was the perfect backbone to the drama. Other nominees are Colin Firth for “A Single Man,” George Clooney for “Up In The Air” and Morgan Freeman for “Invictus.” Bridges should win and he will win.

The Best Supporting Actor race comes down to Christoph Waltz from “Inglourious Basterds” and four also-rans. Waltz’s performance as a Nazi colonel nicknamed “the Jew hunter” is equally charming and frightening, particularly because he’s so nice about being so evil. The unofficial rankings behind Waltz, who both should win and will win, are: Woody Harrelson from “The Messenger” second, Stanley Tucci from “The Lovely Bones” third, Matt Damon from “Invictus” fourth and Christopher Plummer from “The Last Station” fifth.

There’s little doubt Mo’Nique will win Best Supporting Actress for her demented turn as a welfare mother in “Precious.” She’s lazy, abusive and reckless, and yet evokes an element of sympathy. Also nominated are Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga from “Up In The Air,” Maggie Gyllenhaal from “Crazy Heart” and last year’s winner in this category, Penelope Cruz (“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”), for “Nine.” Mo’Nique should win and will win.

Although there are ten Best Picture nominees this year – a wise move by the Academy to increase viewership – the race comes down to three. “The Hurt Locker” is a movie very few people have seen – it has less than $13 million in total box office sales – but it is expertly acted and directed. “Avatar” is a grand filmmaking accomplishment, but a weak script and predictable story will leave it a few votes short. “Up In The Air” was the early frontrunner but has recently faded. Still, there’s something very timely in the story about a jetsetter who fires people for a living coming to terms with his life, and the performances are top notch. Because of this, “Up In The Air” both should win – and will win.

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